In their Game Six match-up against the Cleveland Indians, the Chicago Cubs will be facing Josh Tomlin. That may sound like an advantage.
After all, as FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan wrote earlier today: “Remember that Josh Tomlin isn’t even really supposed to be here. … If the Indians had their druthers, Tomlin, perhaps, would be a bullpen long guy right about now.”
But still, despite his flaws, Tomlin may actually be an interesting chess-like match-up for the Cubs.
With few exceptions (*cough* Javier Baez *cough*), the Cubs have been excellent at controlling the strike zone this season. Among their primary starters, Ben Zobrist (15.2), Dexter Fowler (14.3), Anthony Rizzo (10.9), and Kris Bryant (10.7) all have walk rates over ten percent. A number of other key players (David Ross – 14.6, Miguel Montero – 13.4, Jorge Soler – 11.7) have also shown a strong ability to draw walks. As a team, their 10.4 percent walk rate ranked first in all of baseball.
This ability to draw free passes is part of the reason Chicago had such a devastating offense this year. With virtually no weak spot in the lineup, the club has often turned those walks into runs.
However, that approach may not work on Tuesday.
In 2016, Tomlin has just refused to walk anyone. Among all qualified pitchers, his 1.03 BB/9 actually ranked first by a fairly wide margin; Rick Porcello came in second with 1.29 BB/9. That isn’t quite peak-Greg Maddux, but it’s pretty close.
While it’s true that the Cubs have patience in spades, against Tomlin, patience is not a virtue. He pounds the strike zone and won’t beat himself by allowing easy base runners.
Given the near invincibility of Cleveland’s bullpen, the Cubs will undoubtedly want to strike early. To accomplish that, they’ll have to be aggressive. Even with their keen team-wide eye for the strike zone, it will be difficult to wait it out against Tomlin.
If we’re going to see a Game Seven, it will take the Cubs swinging early and often against a very hittable pitcher. With the move back to an AL park and the addition of Kyle Schwarber at DH, the team has plenty of fire power. Look for them to use it before Tomlin can settle into a groove.
Scott Ferris covers all things baseball as a Staff Writer for Outside Pitch MLB. You can follow him on Twitter @ScottHFerris
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